How to invest behind the sweeping climate and health care package that could soon become law

The Senate just passed the most ambitious climate spending package on record, and there are a host of companies across the renewable energy ecosystem that could benefit. Solar power and other clean energy providers along with electric vehicle makers and some energy and health care companies stand to benefit from the massive bill. The Inflation Reduction Act, which the Senate passed Sunday, will now head to the House of Representatives, earmarks some $369 billion in spending around energy security and emissions-reducing technologies. The legislation also includes health-care funding. The bill’s passage follows months of stalled negotiations in Washington around the Build Back Better plan. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) staunchly opposed that package, so it could have failed in the Senate after passing the House. But at the end of July, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, (D-N.Y.), and Manchin announced a surprise deal around a compromise package. In a bid to appease Manchin, the bill also includes incentives for oil and gas companies. Here’s who could benefit: Solar Clean energy, including the solar industry, is a major beneficiary of the spending, which includes $60 billion in incentives to spur domestic manufacturing. The package would extend the Investment Tax Credit, which has been instrumental to the U.S. solar industry’s growth, at 30% for 10 years. “The long-term nature of the tax credits is incredibly important as it provides visibility for industry players to invest in the supply chain here in the U.S.,” said Jos Shaver, managing partner and chief investment officer at Electron Capital. Sunrun , Sunnova and SunPower are among the residential solar installers that could see a lift from more homeowners opting for rooftop panels. Inverter makers SolarEdge and Enphase Energy also stand to benefit. The provisions in the package also seek to encourage domestic manufacturing, potentially boosting shares of First Solar and Maxeon Technologies , which make solar panels. JPMorgan Chase upgraded shares of First Solar on Monday based on the production tax credits outlined in the IRA. “We view the Inflation Reduction Act as the largest policy change in US history to accelerate growth in what we have viewed as an already inevitable energy transition to renewables,” the firm said in a note to clients. Wind, hydrogen, nuclear & energy storage There are also credits for wind, hydrogen and energy storage. Some of the largest renewable energy developers are NextEra Energy and AES Corporation , which could take advantage of both new credits and expansion of the existing incentives. Shares of hydrogen companies Plug Power and Bloom Energy were on the move Monday, with Wolfe Research saying the production tax credit outlined in the IRA will be a “game-changing boost for [the] hydrogen sector.” Also included in the Inflation Reduction Act are incentives aimed at having nuclear facilities kept online for longer. That could benefit names like Constellation Energy and Public Service Enterprise . The credits for standalone energy storage, meantime, could lift shares of Fluence Energy and Stem . Electric vehicles / battery material companies A key part of the legislation centers on increasing the number of electric vehicles on the road. The bill includes rebates for consumers who buy electric models, although there are restrictions around income and vehicle prices. This could boost companies such as Tesla and GM , which have exceeded the prior threshold of 200,000 vehicle sales, at which point rebates can no longer be claimed. There are additional caveats for the new credits, however. In order to capitalize on the federal incentives, over time more and more of the vehicles’ battery materials need to be sourced from the U.S. or one of the nation’s free trade partners. The bill also seeks to boost domestic manufacturing around key materials for batteries. Albemarle operates the only up-and-running lithium mine in the U.S. Lithium Americas and Piedmont Lithium are in the space but have not yet begun producing. Oil & gas companies The bill also includes some measures for oil and gas companies. The IRA stipulates ongoing lease auctions for oil and gas companies on federal lands. Additionally, it provides incentives for carbon capture, which some energy companies are developing. Morgan Stanley said that Exxon , Chevron and Occidental are “positioned to scale investment in carbon capture and hydrogen.” Health care In addition to climate-focused funding, the Inflation Reduction Act also includes $64 billion for an Affordable Care Act extension. It allows Medicare to negotiate the price of prescription drugs and caps monthly insulin costs for seniors. “Efforts to advance prescription-drug pricing reform have been viewed as a potential headwind to the revenue trajectory of Biopharma for years, but we continue to believe the near-term risk is manageable,” Morgan Stanley said Monday in a note to clients. However, the firm added that every company in its pharma coverage universe will have exposure to Medicare drug price negotiations. Analysts led by Terence Flynn said Bristol-Myers is at the high end in terms of exposure, while Pfizer is at the low end. “Potential EPS impact for most companies of low single digit to high single digit depending on drugs and discounts, where we will have limited visibility,” the firm said. Who loses? The legislation has to be funded, and that will come, in part, from higher taxes for companies. The package establishes a floor on corporate taxes, and also institutes a new 1% excise tax on stock buybacks. “The taxes would have a very minimal 1% drag on S & P 500 earnings per share, though some companies will be more affected than others,” UBS said Monday in a note to clients. – CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting. This post has been syndicated from a third-party source. View the original article here.