Price analysis 9/12: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, MATIC, SHIB
The United States equities markets and the cryptocurrency markets have started the new week on a strong footing. This suggests that investors expect the Federal Reserve’s possible 75 basis point rate hike in the Sept. 20 to 21 meeting to be priced in and it also could mean that investors believe inflation has peaked.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally above $22,000 cleared the closely watched metric of the realized price, which according to Glassnode is at $21,700. The next major barrier on the upside is the 200-week moving average near $23,330. A break and close above this resistance could indicate that the bear market may be ending.
The current bear market has not driven away institutional investors who continue to believe in the long-term prospects of the asset class. One such example was given by Irfan Ahmad, the Asia Pacific digital lead for State Street’s crypto unit State Street Digital, who said that their institutional clients continued to place strategic bets in the cryptocurrency space in June and July.
Could Bitcoin and altcoins continue their up-move in the near term? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin is attempting to form a bottom. Buyers pushed the price above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) ($20,831) on Sept. 9 and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) ($21,944) on Sept. 12. This suggests that the bears may be losing momentum.
If buyers sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, the BTC/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $25,211. The bears are expected to defend this level with vigor. If the price turns down from this level, the pair could spend some time inside a large range between $18,626 and $25,211.
During such periods of consolidation, the weaker hands sell their holdings fearing a further fall while the stronger hands buy expecting that a bottom may be close by. This completes the transfer of assets from the weaker hands to the stronger hands. After the accumulation is complete, the asset usually starts a new bull move.
Another possibility is that the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. If that happens, it will indicate that traders continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then once again revisit the strong support at $18,626.
Ether (ETH) broke above the overhead resistance at $1,700 on Sept. 9 but the bulls are facing stiff resistance at $1,800. This indicates that bears have not given up and they continue to sell at higher levels.
The bears will try to pull the price back below the moving averages while the bulls will attempt to defend this support. The 20-day EMA ($1,652) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating a minor advantage to buyers.
If the price rebounds off the moving averages and rises above $1,800, the ETH/USDT pair could rally toward the overhead resistance at $2,000. Such a move will suggest that the pair may have bottomed out.
Alternatively, if the price plummets below the moving averages, the advantage could tilt in favor of the bears. The pair could then decline to the neckline.
BNB turned up from $258 and climbed back above the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern on Sept. 7. This suggests that the breakdown may have been a bear trap.
The bears tried to stall the recovery at the 20-day EMA ($287) on Sept. 8 but the buyers bulldozed their way through and pushed the price above the moving averages on Sept. 9. The bears pulled the price below the 50-day SMA ($294) on Sept. 11 and 12 but bulls purchased the intraday dip.
Both moving averages are sloping up gradually and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating an advantage to buyers. If the price turns up from the current level, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to $308, which could again act as a resistance.
Conversely, if the price breaks back below the 20-day, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then drop to the neckline at $275.
Ripple’s (XRP) tight range trading between $0.32 and $0.34 resolved to the upside on Sept. 9, and the price reached the 50-day SMA ($0.35) The bears are attempting to stall the recovery at this level but they have not been able to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.34). This suggests strong buying at lower levels.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory, suggesting advantage to buyers. If the price breaks and sustains above the 50-day SMA, the XRP/USDT pair could rally to $0.37 and later to $0.39. Buyers will have to clear this hurdle to signal a potential trend change.
Instead, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.34, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The pair could then decline to the strong support at $0.32.
Cardano (ADA) climbed back above the 20-day EMA ($0.48) on Sept. 7 and the bulls extended the recovery by pushing the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.49) on Sept. 9.
The ADA/USDT pair has been sustaining above the 50-day SMA for the past two days, indicating that traders are not booking profits as they expect the recovery to continue. If bulls push the price above $0.52, the pair could reach the downtrend line. The bears are likely to defend this level aggressively.
If the price turns down from the downtrend line but rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned positive. That could increase the likelihood of a break above the downtrend line. The pair could then attempt a rally to $0.70. This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and slips below $0.45.
Solana (SOL) rose above the $32 level on Sept. 7 and buyers built upon this advantage and pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($34.25) on Sept. 9. The bears tried to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA on Sept. 11 but the bulls successfully defended the level. This indicates that traders are viewing dips as a buying opportunity.
The bulls are attempting to extend the recovery by pushing the price above the 50-day SMA ($37.42) on Sept. 12. If they succeed, the SOL/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward the overhead resistance at $48. This level is likely to act as a strong barrier but if bulls overcome it, the pair could signal the start of a new up-move.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, the pair could decline to the 20-day EMA. A break and close below this support could sink the pair to $30.
Dogecoin (DOGE) bounced off the support zone near $0.06 on Sept. 7, indicating buying at lower levels. The price reached the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sept. 9 but the bulls could not extend the relief rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.07). This suggests that bears are active at higher levels.
Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. If buyers drive the price above the 50-day SMA, the short-term advantage could tilt in favor of the buyers. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rally to $0.07 and later to the stiff overhead resistance at $0.09.
Conversely, if the price turns down and sustains below the support zone near $0.06, it will suggest that bears are back in command. That could sink the pair to the crucial support at $0.05.
Related: Elon Musk, Cathie Wood sound ‘deflation’ alarm — Is Bitcoin at risk of falling below $14K?
Polkadot (DOT) reached the 50-day SMA ($7.88) on Sept. 9 where the bears are mounting a strong resistance. The sellers tried to pull the price back below the 20-day EMA ($7.50) on Sept. 11 but the bulls held their ground.
Buyers pushed the price above the 50-day SMA on Sept. 12 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that bears are not willing to surrender. The price has been stuck between the moving averages for the past few days but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.
If buyers sustain the price above the 50-day SMA, the DOT/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to $9.17 and later to the overhead resistance at $10. On the contrary, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could retest the support at $6.75.
Polygon (MATIC) broke and closed above the moving averages on Sept. 9 but the bulls could not build upon this advantage and push the price above the immediate resistance at $0.92.
A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they are buying the dips to the moving averages. This suggests that buyers expect the recovery to continue and the MATIC/USDT pair to rally to the overhead resistance at $1.05. A break and close above this level could clear the path for a possible rally to $1.35.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, the pair could drop to $0.79 and later to $0.75. The bears will have to sink the price below this level to gain the upper hand.
Shiba Inu (SHIB) broke and closed above the moving averages on Sept. 9 but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows selling at higher levels. A minor positive is that bulls have not allowed the price to break below the moving averages.
If the price rebounds off the moving averages, buyers will attempt to clear the overhead hurdle at $0.000014. If they succeed, the likelihood of a rally to $0.000018 increases. The bears are expected to defend this level aggressively.
This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price breaks below the moving averages and the immediate support at $0.000012. If that happens, the SHIB/USDT pair could drop to $0.000010.
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